Is it time to buy some candles? The PM says yes: stock up for a three-day emergency (including the candles). The grid operator NESO says no: the lights will stay on this winter. It’s NESO’s reassurance that should worry you. Why does it need to reassure us at all?
There are two reasons the lights may go out. First, a cyber attack might reveal how all the infrastructures are now intwined in a mutual dependency on our vital networks. One serious hack or severed communications cable could put every system – including electricity – at risk. Second, the electricity system might be unable to cope during a windless, cold and dark winter Dunkelflaute. Then intermittent wind and solar, together with reliance on European power supplies, may not be enough.
The fixes are practical, if unglamorous: dependable standby generation, stronger electricity and gas networks, more storage, smarter demand management and serious cyber protection. All add to the already very high systems costs. Until then, keep the candles, and the matches, within reach.
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